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Kyran vs Kyzyl-Zhar II — 1. Division 2019

Kyran
Kyran
FT
4 – 0
Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
8/23/20211. Division1. Division · Round 14Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kyran74%
×Draw15%
Kyzyl-Zhar II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyran
2.92
Kyzyl-Zhar II
1.10

Kyran creates 165% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kyran
2.11
Kyzyl-Zhar II
0.73

allows per match

Kyran
1.47
Kyzyl-Zhar II
3.73

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par
Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kyran or draw
88%
Kyran or Kyzyl-Zhar II
85%
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II
26%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+
54%
Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals
94%
Kyran 2+ goals
78%
Kyran 3+ goals
55%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
67%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
30%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)
86%
Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 2.11 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.92

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + Kyran defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kyran scores more
74%
level
15%
Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
12%

Kyran at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyran vs Kyzyl-Zhar II

Kyran beat Kyzyl-Zhar II 4-0 in 1. Division on August 23, 2021.

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.