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Kyran vs Jas Qyran — 1. Division 2019

Kyran
Kyran
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
A. Serikzhan 90+6'
A. Uvaliev 77'
A. Rakhmatullaev 12'
N. Agzambayev 40'
D. Alimzhan 7'
8/24/20231. Division1. Division · Round 21Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kyran58%
×Draw20%
Jas Qyran22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyran
2.27
Jas Qyran
1.34

Kyran creates 69% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kyran
2.11
Jas Qyran
1.21

allows per match

Kyran
1.47
Jas Qyran
2.43

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kyran or draw
78%
Kyran or Jas Qyran
80%
Draw or Jas Qyran
42%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+
36%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals
90%
Kyran 2+ goals
66%
Kyran 3+ goals
39%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
74%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
39%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)
72%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 2.11 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.27

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Kyran defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kyran scores more
58%
level
20%
Jas Qyran scores more
22%

Kyran at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
D. Alimzhan
12'
A. Rakhmatullaev
40'
N. Agzambayev
77'
A. Uvaliev
90+5'
A. Aydarbekuly
90+5'
A. Aydarbekuly
90+6'
A. Serikzhan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyran vs Jas Qyran

Kyran beat Jas Qyran 3-2 in 1. Division on August 24, 2023.

Goals: D. Alimzhan (7'), A. Rakhmatullaev (12'), N. Agzambayev (40'), A. Uvaliev (77'), A. Serikzhan (90+6').

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.