Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kyran vs Igilik — 1. Division 2019

Kyran
Kyran
FT
6 – 0
Igilik
Igilik
6/13/20211. Division1. Division · Round 8BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kyran70%
×Draw16%
Igilik13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyran
2.68
Igilik
1.09

Kyran creates 146% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kyran
2.11
Igilik
0.71

allows per match

Kyran
1.47
Igilik
3.25

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par
Igilik+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

Igilik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kyran or draw
87%
Kyran or Igilik
84%
Draw or Igilik
30%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+
49%
Igilik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals
93%
Kyran 2+ goals
74%
Kyran 3+ goals
49%
Igilik 1+ goals
66%
Igilik 2+ goals
30%
Igilik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)
84%
Igilik (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

Igilik away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 2.11 + Igilik defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.68

Igilik attack 0.71 + Kyran defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kyran scores more
70%
level
16%
Igilik scores more
13%

Kyran at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Kyran 6–0 Igilik

Kyran beat Igilik 6-0 in 1. Division on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.