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Kyran vs Akzhayik — 1. Division 2019

Kyran
Kyran
CANC
12:00
Akzhayik
Akzhayik
6/20/20241. Division1. Division · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Kyran45%
×Draw23%
Akzhayik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyran
1.74
Akzhayik
1.41

Kyran creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kyran
2.11
Akzhayik
1.34

allows per match

Kyran
1.47
Akzhayik
1.38

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par
Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

Akzhayik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kyran or draw
69%
Kyran or Akzhayik
77%
Draw or Akzhayik
55%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+
24%
Akzhayik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals
82%
Kyran 2+ goals
52%
Kyran 3+ goals
25%
Akzhayik 1+ goals
76%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
41%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)
59%
Akzhayik (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 2.11 + Akzhayik defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.74

Akzhayik attack 1.34 + Kyran defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kyran scores more
45%
level
23%
Akzhayik scores more
31%

Kyran at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kyran host Akzhayik

June 20, 2024: Kyran take on Akzhayik in 1. Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.