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Kyran vs Akzhayik — Cup 2019

Kyran
Kyran
PST
00:00
Akzhayik
Akzhayik
3/24/2020CupCup · Group Stage - 3BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kyran29%
×Draw24%
Akzhayik47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyran
1.23
Akzhayik
1.64

Akzhayik creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kyran
1.20
Akzhayik
1.27

allows per match

Kyran
2.00
Akzhayik
1.27

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par
Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

Akzhayik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kyran or draw
53%
Kyran or Akzhayik
76%
Draw or Akzhayik
71%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+
12%
Akzhayik wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals
71%
Kyran 2+ goals
35%
Kyran 3+ goals
13%
Akzhayik 1+ goals
81%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
49%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)
38%
Akzhayik (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 1.20 + Akzhayik defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Akzhayik attack 1.27 + Kyran defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kyran scores more
29%
level
24%
Akzhayik scores more
47%

Akzhayik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kyran host Akzhayik

March 24, 2020: Kyran take on Akzhayik in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kyran host Akzhayik at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.