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Kypärämäki Rangers vs Lahti — Suomen Cup 2018

Kypärämäki Rangers
Kypärämäki Rangers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
5/17/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundViitaniemi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kypärämäki Rangers16%
×Draw19%
Lahti65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kypärämäki Rangers
0.98
Lahti
2.20

Lahti creates 124% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kypärämäki Rangers
0.75
Lahti
2.65

allows per match

Kypärämäki Rangers
1.75
Lahti
1.22

finishing

Kypärämäki Rangers+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kypärämäki Rangers ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kypärämäki Rangers or draw
35%
Kypärämäki Rangers or Lahti
81%
Draw or Lahti
84%

Winning margin

Kypärämäki Rangers wins by 2+
5%
Lahti wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Kypärämäki Rangers 1+ goals
62%
Kypärämäki Rangers 2+ goals
26%
Kypärämäki Rangers 3+ goals
8%
Lahti 1+ goals
89%
Lahti 2+ goals
64%
Lahti 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Kypärämäki Rangers (draw refunded)
20%
Lahti (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kypärämäki Rangers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kypärämäki Rangers attack 0.75 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Lahti attack 2.65 + Kypärämäki Rangers defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kypärämäki Rangers scores more
16%
level
19%
Lahti scores more
65%

Lahti at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kypärämäki Rangers vs Lahti

Lahti beat Kypärämäki Rangers 1-0 in Suomen Cup on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Viitaniemi tekonurmi in Jyväskylä.