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Kypärämäki Rangers vs HaPK Edustus — Suomen Cup 2018

Kypärämäki Rangers
Kypärämäki Rangers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
HaPK Edustus
HaPK Edustus
4/16/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundPalokka tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kypärämäki Rangers11%
×Draw17%
HaPK Edustus72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kypärämäki Rangers
0.88
HaPK Edustus
2.48

HaPK Edustus creates 182% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kypärämäki Rangers
0.75
HaPK Edustus
3.20

allows per match

Kypärämäki Rangers
1.75
HaPK Edustus
1.00

finishing

Kypärämäki Rangers+0.00on par
HaPK Edustus+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kypärämäki Rangers ↓

HaPK Edustus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kypärämäki Rangers or draw
28%
Kypärämäki Rangers or HaPK Edustus
83%
Draw or HaPK Edustus
89%

Winning margin

Kypärämäki Rangers wins by 2+
3%
HaPK Edustus wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Kypärämäki Rangers 1+ goals
59%
Kypärämäki Rangers 2+ goals
22%
Kypärämäki Rangers 3+ goals
6%
HaPK Edustus 1+ goals
92%
HaPK Edustus 2+ goals
70%
HaPK Edustus 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Kypärämäki Rangers (draw refunded)
14%
HaPK Edustus (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kypärämäki Rangers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

HaPK Edustus away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kypärämäki Rangers attack 0.75 + HaPK Edustus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

HaPK Edustus attack 3.20 + Kypärämäki Rangers defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kypärämäki Rangers scores more
11%
level
17%
HaPK Edustus scores more
72%

HaPK Edustus at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "HaPK Edustus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kypärämäki Rangers vs HaPK Edustus

HaPK Edustus beat Kypärämäki Rangers 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Palokka tekonurmi in Jyväskylä.