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Kyoto Sanga vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
Preview
11:00
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
2/13/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 21Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Big match
39%
Yokohama F. Marinos
model favours
36%25%39%

Yokohama F. Marinos score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kyoto Sanga36%
×Draw25%
Yokohama F. Marinos39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.39
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 152 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.67

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.53

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
61%
Kyoto Sanga or Yokohama F. Marinos
75%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
64%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
16%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
75%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
40%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
16%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
77%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
43%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
48%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.67 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
36%
level
25%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
39%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
Yokohama F. Marinos
Direct / counter-attacking
51%Possession44%
71%Pass accuracy71%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap10.9
1.13xG1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kyoto SangaYokohama F. Marinos

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Kyoto Sanga
0
Draws
5
Yokohama F. Marinos
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 63%
0–33–02–12–33–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sanga
WLWL
Marinos
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kyoto Sanga face Yokohama F. Marinos (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Kyoto Sanga hosting Yokohama F. Marinos. Match starts February 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kyoto Sanga host Yokohama F. Marinos at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.