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Kyoto Sanga vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
10/24/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kyoto Sanga47%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.42
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.99

Kyoto Sanga creates 43% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 168 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.33
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.01
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
74%
Kyoto Sanga or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
53%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
23%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
76%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
41%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
17%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
63%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
26%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
64%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
47%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
26%

Kyoto Sanga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kyoto Sanga 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Kyoto Sanga and Renofa Yamaguchi drew 1-1 in J2 League on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.