Kyoto Sanga 2–1 Kanazawa: Result & Stats

Kyoto Sanga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kanazawa

4/14/2019

J2 League · Round 9Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kyoto Sanga44%

×Draw26%

Kanazawa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchKanazawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Kyoto Sanga

1.44

Kanazawa

1.13

Kyoto Sanga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 126 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

1.01

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.33

Kanazawa

1.25

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.01

Kanazawa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Kanazawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

70%

Kyoto Sanga or Kanazawa

74%

Draw or Kanazawa

56%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

21%

Kanazawa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

76%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

42%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

18%

Kanazawa 1+ goals

68%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

31%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

60%

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

44%

level

26%

Kanazawa scores more

30%

Kyoto Sanga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff