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Kanazawa vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
7/31/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 25Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kanazawa36%
×Draw28%
Kyoto Sanga36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.21
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Kyoto Sanga
1.11

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Kyoto Sanga
1.25

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
64%
Kanazawa or Kyoto Sanga
72%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
64%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
15%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
70%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
34%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
12%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
70%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
34%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
50%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.11 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kanazawa scores more
36%
level
28%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
36%

Kanazawa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kanazawa vs Kyoto Sanga

Kanazawa and Kyoto Sanga drew 1-1 in J2 League on July 31, 2019.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa).