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Kyoto Sanga vs Jubilo Iwata — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
3/5/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 3Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Kyoto Sanga46%
×Draw27%
Jubilo Iwata27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.43
Jubilo Iwata
1.04

Kyoto Sanga creates 38% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Jubilo Iwata
0.83

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Jubilo Iwata
1.60

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Jubilo Iwata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
73%
Kyoto Sanga or Jubilo Iwata
73%
Draw or Jubilo Iwata
54%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
22%
Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
76%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
42%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
17%
Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
65%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
28%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
63%
Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Jubilo Iwata attack 0.83 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
46%
level
27%
Jubilo Iwata scores more
27%

Kyoto Sanga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Jubilo Iwata

Jubilo Iwata beat Kyoto Sanga 4-1 in J1 League on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.