Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Kyoto Sanga28%
Gamba Osaka46%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gamba Osaka creates 37% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kyoto Sanga ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches
Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kyoto Sanga attack 0.94 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06
Gamba Osaka attack 1.06 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.45
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Gamba Osaka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Kawasaki Frontale
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kashima
Consadole Sapporo
Urawa
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulseGamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe
Vegalta Sendai
Yokohama F. Marinos
Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
Nagoya Grampus
Jubilo Iwata
Kashiwa Reysol
V-varen NagasakiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kyoto Sanga host Gamba Osaka on Saturday, 28 June 2025 at 10:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga beat Gamba Osaka 3-1 in J1 League on June 28, 2025.
The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.