Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kyoto Sanga vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
8/24/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 28Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kyoto Sanga31%
×Draw25%
FC Tokyo44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.28
FC Tokyo
1.56

FC Tokyo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
0.94
FC Tokyo
1.28

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.84
FC Tokyo
1.62

finishing

Kyoto Sanga-0.11scores less
FC Tokyo-0.28scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
56%
Kyoto Sanga or FC Tokyo
75%
Draw or FC Tokyo
69%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
13%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
72%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
37%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
14%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
79%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
46%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
42%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 0.94 + FC Tokyo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

FC Tokyo attack 1.28 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
31%
level
25%
FC Tokyo scores more
44%

FC Tokyo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs FC Tokyo

Kyoto Sanga beat FC Tokyo 3-0 in J1 League on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.