Kyoto Sanga vs Fagiano Okayama

Kyoto Sanga

Preview

11:00

Fagiano Okayama

12/19/2026

J1 League · Round 20Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Big match

41%

Kyoto Sanga

model favours

41%27%32%

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kyoto Sanga41%

×Draw27%

Fagiano Okayama32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.17

Kyoto Sanga

1.35

Fagiano Okayama

1.17

Kyoto Sanga creates 15% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 24 away

1.25

creates per match

1.08

1.25

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

Fagiano Okayama

1.08

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

Fagiano Okayama

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

68%

Kyoto Sanga or Fagiano Okayama

73%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

59%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

19%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

74%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

39%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

15%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

69%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

33%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

56%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.08 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

41%

level

27%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

32%

Kyoto Sanga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Fagiano Okayama score first in only 33% of matches
Fagiano Okayama raise their game against the top half — 39% wins vs the upper half, only 26% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Kyoto Sanga

Balanced

Fagiano Okayama

Direct / counter-attacking

51%Possession40%

71%Pass accuracy71%

12.8Shots15.1

1.13xGBiggest gap1.57

Kyoto SangaFagiano Okayama

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Kyoto Sanga

2

Draws

3

Fagiano Okayama

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 40%

5–10–15–00–20–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Sanga

WLWLL

Okayama

LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff