Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

Fagiano Okayama

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kyoto Sanga

2/15/2025

J1 League · Round 1City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Fagiano Okayama46%

×Draw24%

Kyoto Sanga31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.36

Fagiano Okayama

1.71

Kyoto Sanga

1.36

Fagiano Okayama creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.64

creates per match

1.33

1.39

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.64

Kyoto Sanga

1.33

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.39

Kyoto Sanga

1.79

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.44scores less

Kyoto Sanga+0.50scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

69%

Fagiano Okayama or Kyoto Sanga

76%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

54%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

24%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

82%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

51%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

24%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

74%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

39%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

60%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.64 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

46%

level

24%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

31%

Fagiano Okayama at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff