Kyoto Sanga vs Fagiano Okayama — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 89+ matches
Kyoto Sanga41%
Fagiano Okayama31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kyoto Sanga creates 20% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 146 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kyoto Sanga ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 89 matches
Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 146 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21
Fagiano Okayama attack 1.03 + Kyoto Sanga defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Kyoto Sanga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kyoto Sanga host Fagiano Okayama on Wednesday, 4 November 2020 at 10:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
Kyoto Sanga 2 – 1 Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga beat Fagiano Okayama 2-1 in J2 League on November 4, 2020.
Goals: H. Yamamoto (53'), Y. Soneda (54'), J. Buijs (56').
The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.