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Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
Preview
10:00
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
8/29/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Big match
39%
Kyoto Sanga
model favours
39%29%33%

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kyoto Sanga39%
×Draw29%
Avispa Fukuoka33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.18
Avispa Fukuoka
1.06

Kyoto Sanga creates 11% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 98 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Avispa Fukuoka
0.88

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Avispa Fukuoka
1.10

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
67%
Kyoto Sanga or Avispa Fukuoka
71%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
61%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
16%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
69%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
33%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
12%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
65%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
29%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
54%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.88 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
39%
level
29%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
33%

Kyoto Sanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
Avispa Fukuoka
Balanced
51%Possession47%
71%Pass accuracy72%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap9.7
1.13xG1.00
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kyoto SangaAvispa Fukuoka

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Kyoto Sanga
2
Draws
5
Avispa Fukuoka
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 50%
1–12–02–20–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sanga
WLWL
Fukuoka
LWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kyoto Sanga face Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Kyoto Sanga hosting Avispa Fukuoka. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kyoto Sanga host Avispa Fukuoka at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.