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Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
3/9/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 5Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kyoto Sanga39%
×Draw29%
Avispa Fukuoka33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.18
Avispa Fukuoka
1.06

Kyoto Sanga creates 11% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 98 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Avispa Fukuoka
0.88

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Avispa Fukuoka
1.10

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
67%
Kyoto Sanga or Avispa Fukuoka
71%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
61%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
16%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
69%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
33%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
12%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
65%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
29%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
54%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.88 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
39%
level
29%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
33%

Kyoto Sanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka beat Kyoto Sanga 1-0 in J1 League on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.