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Kyetume vs URA — Premier League 2019

Kyetume
Kyetume
FT
1 – 0
URA
URA
L. Kiyemba 80'
5/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Nakisunga Saaza Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kyetume32%
×Draw28%
URA40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyetume
1.07
URA
1.24

URA creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 98 away

creates per match

Kyetume
1.19
URA
1.13

allows per match

Kyetume
1.35
URA
0.96

finishing

Kyetume+0.00on par
URA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyetume ↓

URA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kyetume or draw
60%
Kyetume or URA
72%
Draw or URA
68%

Winning margin

Kyetume wins by 2+
12%
URA wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kyetume 1+ goals
66%
Kyetume 2+ goals
29%
Kyetume 3+ goals
9%
URA 1+ goals
71%
URA 2+ goals
35%
URA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kyetume (draw refunded)
44%
URA (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyetume at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

URA away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyetume attack 1.19 + URA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

URA attack 1.13 + Kyetume defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kyetume scores more
32%
level
28%
URA scores more
40%

URA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
S. Mansoor← S. Mansoor
46'
M. Birungi← M. Birungi
56'
I. Sserubiri← I. Sserubiri
80'
L. Kiyemba
81'
S. Mukwala← I. Dada
83'
P. Mbowa
87'
I. Deo← I. Deo
90+3'
D. Were

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kyetume 1 – 0 URA

Kyetume beat URA 1-0 in Premier League on May 19, 2021.

Goals: L. Kiyemba (80').

The match was played at Nakisunga Saaza Ground in Mukono.