Kyetume 0–1 SC Villa: Result & Stats

Kyetume

FT

0 – 1

SC Villa

3/2/2021

Premier League · Round 11FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kyetume33%

×Draw29%

SC Villa38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyetumeExpected goals in this matchSC Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.17

Kyetume

1.08

SC Villa

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 99 away

1.19

creates per match

0.99

1.35

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Kyetume

1.19

SC Villa

0.99

allows per match

Kyetume

1.35

SC Villa

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyetume+0.00on par

SC Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyetume ↓

SC Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kyetume or draw

62%

Kyetume or SC Villa

71%

Draw or SC Villa

67%

Winning margin

Kyetume wins by 2+

13%

SC Villa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kyetume 1+ goals

66%

Kyetume 2+ goals

29%

Kyetume 3+ goals

10%

SC Villa 1+ goals

69%

SC Villa 2+ goals

33%

SC Villa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kyetume (draw refunded)

47%

SC Villa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyetume at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

SC Villa away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyetume attack 1.19 + SC Villa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

SC Villa attack 0.99 + Kyetume defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kyetume scores more

33%

level

29%

SC Villa scores more

38%

SC Villa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SC Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff