Kyetume 2–2 Bright Stars: Result & Stats

Kyetume

FT

2 – 2

Bright Stars

2/23/2021

Premier League · Round 9FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kyetume41%

×Draw28%

Bright Stars31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyetumeExpected goals in this matchBright Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

Kyetume

1.30

Bright Stars

1.10

Kyetume creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 83 away

1.19

creates per match

0.86

1.35

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Kyetume

1.19

Bright Stars

0.86

allows per match

Kyetume

1.35

Bright Stars

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyetume+0.00on par

Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyetume ↓

Bright Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kyetume or draw

69%

Kyetume or Bright Stars

72%

Draw or Bright Stars

59%

Winning margin

Kyetume wins by 2+

19%

Bright Stars wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kyetume 1+ goals

73%

Kyetume 2+ goals

37%

Kyetume 3+ goals

14%

Bright Stars 1+ goals

67%

Bright Stars 2+ goals

30%

Bright Stars 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kyetume (draw refunded)

57%

Bright Stars (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyetume at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyetume attack 1.19 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + Kyetume defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kyetume scores more

41%

level

28%

Bright Stars scores more

31%

Kyetume at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kyetume will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff