Kwekwe United 1–2 Simba Bhora: Result & Stats

Kwekwe United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Simba Bhora

M. Minezhi 62'

T. Mavunga 90'

N. Tigere 28'

4/30/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 9Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kwekwe United21%

×Draw28%

Simba Bhora52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kwekwe UnitedExpected goals in this matchSimba Bhora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.38

Kwekwe United

0.76

Simba Bhora

1.38

Simba Bhora creates 82% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 62 away

0.56

creates per match

0.94

1.81

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Kwekwe United

0.56

Simba Bhora

0.94

allows per match

Kwekwe United

1.81

Simba Bhora

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwekwe United ↓

Simba Bhora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kwekwe United or draw

48%

Kwekwe United or Simba Bhora

72%

Draw or Simba Bhora

79%

Winning margin

Kwekwe United wins by 2+

6%

Simba Bhora wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kwekwe United 1+ goals

53%

Kwekwe United 2+ goals

18%

Kwekwe United 3+ goals

4%

Simba Bhora 1+ goals

75%

Simba Bhora 2+ goals

40%

Simba Bhora 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kwekwe United (draw refunded)

29%

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwekwe United at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Simba Bhora away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwekwe United attack 0.56 + Simba Bhora defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Simba Bhora attack 0.94 + Kwekwe United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kwekwe United scores more

21%

level

28%

Simba Bhora scores more

52%

Simba Bhora at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

N. Tigere

62'

M. Minezhi

90'

T. Mavunga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff