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Kwekwe United vs Ngezi Platinum — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kwekwe United
Kwekwe United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
M. Mambare 70'
A. Karengesha 31'
3/1/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kwekwe United19%
×Draw28%
Ngezi Platinum52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwekwe United
0.69
Ngezi Platinum
1.34

Ngezi Platinum creates 94% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 99 away

creates per match

Kwekwe United
0.56
Ngezi Platinum
0.88

allows per match

Kwekwe United
1.81
Ngezi Platinum
0.81

finishing

Kwekwe United+0.00on par
Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwekwe United ↓

Ngezi Platinum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kwekwe United or draw
48%
Kwekwe United or Ngezi Platinum
72%
Draw or Ngezi Platinum
81%

Winning margin

Kwekwe United wins by 2+
5%
Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kwekwe United 1+ goals
50%
Kwekwe United 2+ goals
15%
Kwekwe United 3+ goals
3%
Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
74%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
39%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kwekwe United (draw refunded)
27%
Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwekwe United at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Ngezi Platinum away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.81 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwekwe United attack 0.56 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Ngezi Platinum attack 0.88 + Kwekwe United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kwekwe United scores more
19%
level
28%
Ngezi Platinum scores more
52%

Ngezi Platinum at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
A. Karengesha
70'
M. Mambare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Kwekwe United 1–1 Ngezi Platinum

Kwekwe United and Ngezi Platinum drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on March 1, 2025.

Goals: A. Karengesha (31'), M. Mambare (70').

The match was played at Bata Stadium in Gweru.