Kwara United 0–0 Rivers United: Result & Stats

Kwara United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rivers United

5/9/2024

NPFL · Round 23Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kwara United54%

×Draw29%

Rivers United17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kwara UnitedExpected goals in this matchRivers United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.58

Kwara United

1.30

Rivers United

0.58

Kwara United creates 124% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 130 away

1.39

creates per match

0.72

0.45

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Kwara United

1.39

Rivers United

0.72

allows per match

Kwara United

0.45

Rivers United

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par

Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Rivers United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw

83%

Kwara United or Rivers United

71%

Draw or Rivers United

46%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+

26%

Rivers United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals

73%

Kwara United 2+ goals

37%

Kwara United 3+ goals

14%

Rivers United 1+ goals

44%

Rivers United 2+ goals

12%

Rivers United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)

77%

Rivers United (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kwara United scores more

54%

level

29%

Rivers United scores more

17%

Kwara United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff