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Kwara United vs Remo Stars — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Remo Stars
Remo Stars
5/26/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 33Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Kwara United57%
×Draw27%
Remo Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.42
Remo Stars
0.61

Kwara United creates 133% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 99 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Remo Stars
0.78

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Remo Stars
1.44

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Remo Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
84%
Kwara United or Remo Stars
73%
Draw or Remo Stars
43%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
29%
Remo Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
76%
Kwara United 2+ goals
41%
Kwara United 3+ goals
17%
Remo Stars 1+ goals
46%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
13%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
78%
Remo Stars (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Remo Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Remo Stars attack 0.78 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kwara United scores more
57%
level
27%
Remo Stars scores more
16%

Kwara United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kwara United 3–2 Remo Stars

Kwara United beat Remo Stars 3-2 in NPFL on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.