Kwara United 2–0 Plateau United: Result & Stats

Kwara United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Plateau United

11/17/2024

NPFL · Round 12Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kwara United58%

×Draw28%

Plateau United15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kwara UnitedExpected goals in this matchPlateau United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.55

Kwara United

1.39

Plateau United

0.55

Kwara United creates 153% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

1.39

creates per match

0.65

0.45

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Kwara United

1.39

Plateau United

0.65

allows per match

Kwara United

0.45

Plateau United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par

Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Plateau United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw

85%

Kwara United or Plateau United

72%

Draw or Plateau United

42%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+

29%

Plateau United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals

75%

Kwara United 2+ goals

40%

Kwara United 3+ goals

16%

Plateau United 1+ goals

42%

Plateau United 2+ goals

11%

Plateau United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)

80%

Plateau United (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kwara United scores more

58%

level

28%

Plateau United scores more

15%

Kwara United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff