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Kwara United vs Niger Tornadoes — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
9/8/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 1Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Kwara United60%
×Draw26%
Niger Tornadoes13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.46
Niger Tornadoes
0.52

Kwara United creates 181% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 96 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Niger Tornadoes
0.58

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Niger Tornadoes
1.53

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Niger Tornadoes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
87%
Kwara United or Niger Tornadoes
74%
Draw or Niger Tornadoes
40%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
32%
Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
77%
Kwara United 2+ goals
43%
Kwara United 3+ goals
18%
Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
41%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
10%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
82%
Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Niger Tornadoes away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Niger Tornadoes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Niger Tornadoes attack 0.58 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kwara United scores more
60%
level
26%
Niger Tornadoes scores more
13%

Kwara United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kwara United 1–2 Niger Tornadoes

Niger Tornadoes beat Kwara United 2-1 in NPFL on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.