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Kwara United vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
6/12/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 36Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Kwara United60%
×Draw27%
Kano Pillars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.46
Kano Pillars
0.55

Kwara United creates 165% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 121 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
86%
Kwara United or Kano Pillars
73%
Draw or Kano Pillars
40%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
31%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
77%
Kwara United 2+ goals
43%
Kwara United 3+ goals
18%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
42%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
11%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
81%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kwara United scores more
60%
level
27%
Kano Pillars scores more
14%

Kwara United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kwara United 2–0 Kano Pillars

Kwara United beat Kano Pillars 2-0 in NPFL on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.