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Kwara United vs Ikorodu City — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City
8/24/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 1Kwara Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kwara United58%
×Draw27%
Ikorodu City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.44
Ikorodu City
0.57

Kwara United creates 153% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Ikorodu City
0.68

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Ikorodu City
1.50

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Ikorodu City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
85%
Kwara United or Ikorodu City
73%
Draw or Ikorodu City
42%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
30%
Ikorodu City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
76%
Kwara United 2+ goals
42%
Kwara United 3+ goals
18%
Ikorodu City 1+ goals
43%
Ikorodu City 2+ goals
11%
Ikorodu City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
80%
Ikorodu City (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kwara United scores more
58%
level
27%
Ikorodu City scores more
15%

Kwara United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kwara United 0–0 Ikorodu City

Kwara United and Ikorodu City drew 0-0 in NPFL on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Stadium in Ilorin.