Kwara United 4–0 Heartland: Result & Stats | NPFL

Kwara United

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Heartland

6/23/2024

NPFL · Round 38Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Kwara United61%

×Draw26%

Heartland12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kwara UnitedExpected goals in this matchHeartland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.49

Kwara United

1.46

Heartland

0.49

Kwara United creates 198% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 100 away

1.39

creates per match

0.53

0.45

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Kwara United

1.39

Heartland

0.53

allows per match

Kwara United

0.45

Heartland

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par

Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Heartland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw

88%

Kwara United or Heartland

74%

Draw or Heartland

39%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+

32%

Heartland wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals

77%

Kwara United 2+ goals

43%

Kwara United 3+ goals

18%

Heartland 1+ goals

39%

Heartland 2+ goals

9%

Heartland 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)

83%

Heartland (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Heartland attack 0.53 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kwara United scores more

61%

level

26%

Heartland scores more

12%

Kwara United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff