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Kwara United vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
A. Garba 85'
A. Mohammed 37'
11/26/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 10Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Kwara United68%
×Draw23%
Gombe United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.65
Gombe United
0.41

Kwara United creates 302% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 59 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Gombe United
1.90

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
91%
Kwara United or Gombe United
77%
Draw or Gombe United
32%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
39%
Gombe United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
81%
Kwara United 2+ goals
49%
Kwara United 3+ goals
23%
Gombe United 1+ goals
34%
Gombe United 2+ goals
6%
Gombe United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
89%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.65

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kwara United scores more
68%
level
23%
Gombe United scores more
9%

Kwara United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
K. Balogun
37'
A. Mohammed
85'
A. Garba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kwara United vs Gombe United

Kwara United beat Gombe United 2-0 in NPFL on November 26, 2023.

Goals: A. Mohammed (37'), A. Garba (85').

The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.