Kwara United 0–0 Enugu Rangers: Result & Stats

Kwara United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Enugu Rangers

3/15/2026

NPFL · Round 30Kwara Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kwara United53%

×Draw30%

Enugu Rangers17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kwara UnitedExpected goals in this matchEnugu Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.58

Kwara United

1.26

Enugu Rangers

0.58

Kwara United creates 117% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 130 away

1.39

creates per match

0.71

0.45

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Kwara United

1.39

Enugu Rangers

0.71

allows per match

Kwara United

0.45

Enugu Rangers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Enugu Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw

83%

Kwara United or Enugu Rangers

70%

Draw or Enugu Rangers

47%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+

25%

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals

72%

Kwara United 2+ goals

36%

Kwara United 3+ goals

13%

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals

44%

Enugu Rangers 2+ goals

12%

Enugu Rangers 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)

76%

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kwara United scores more

53%

level

30%

Enugu Rangers scores more

17%

Kwara United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff