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Kwara United vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
4/21/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 31Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Kwara United56%
×Draw29%
Akwa United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.33
Akwa United
0.56

Kwara United creates 138% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 111 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
84%
Kwara United or Akwa United
71%
Draw or Akwa United
44%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
27%
Akwa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
74%
Kwara United 2+ goals
38%
Kwara United 3+ goals
15%
Akwa United 1+ goals
43%
Akwa United 2+ goals
11%
Akwa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
78%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kwara United scores more
56%
level
29%
Akwa United scores more
16%

Kwara United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kwara United 1–0 Akwa United

Kwara United beat Akwa United 1-0 in NPFL on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.