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Kvik Halden vs Øygarden — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Kvik Halden
Kvik Halden
CANC
13:00
Øygarden
Øygarden
8/20/20222. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kvik Halden67%
×Draw19%
Øygarden14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvik Halden
2.26
Øygarden
0.94

Kvik Halden creates 140% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kvik Halden
1.85
Øygarden
0.67

allows per match

Kvik Halden
1.20
Øygarden
2.67

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw
86%
Kvik Halden or Øygarden
81%
Draw or Øygarden
33%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+
44%
Øygarden wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals
89%
Kvik Halden 2+ goals
66%
Kvik Halden 3+ goals
39%
Øygarden 1+ goals
61%
Øygarden 2+ goals
24%
Øygarden 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)
82%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

Øygarden away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.85 + Øygarden defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.26

Øygarden attack 0.67 + Kvik Halden defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kvik Halden scores more
67%
level
19%
Øygarden scores more
14%

Kvik Halden at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvik Halden vs Øygarden — Match Preview

Kvik Halden face Øygarden on August 20, 2022 in this 2. Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kvik Halden host Øygarden at Halden Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.