Kvik Halden 1–2 Vidar: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vidar

D. Hasanagic 8'

T. Jakobsen 48'

V. Aasen 28'

6/10/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 9Halden Stadion (Halden)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kvik Halden58%

×Draw22%

Vidar20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchVidar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.03

Kvik Halden

1.92

Vidar

1.03

Kvik Halden creates 86% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

1.77

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Kvik Halden

1.77

Vidar

0.86

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.21

Vidar

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Vidar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Vidar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

80%

Kvik Halden or Vidar

78%

Draw or Vidar

42%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

34%

Vidar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

85%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

57%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

30%

Vidar 1+ goals

64%

Vidar 2+ goals

28%

Vidar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

74%

Vidar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Vidar away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + Vidar defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Vidar attack 0.86 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

58%

level

22%

Vidar scores more

20%

Kvik Halden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

28'

46'

48'

58'

C. Landsnes← V. Hellestö

73'

P. Nomell← D. Hasanagic

73'

S. Narh← O. Strømsborg

74'

S. Jakobsen← S. Christensen

87'

E. Randulff← V. Skjørestad

Kvik

Vidar

1

Egeland

10

Høvring

16

▼

Skjøresta

3

Haugen

23

⚽

Aasen

2

▼

7

6

4

8

▼

Hellestö

19

⚽

1

17

16

2

23

9

19

▼

Krans

11

Chaib

33

Makiadi

25

⚽

▼

Hasanagic

88

▼

Strømsbor

Manager: K. Bergersen

46'▲M. Moberg←▼K. Krans

73'▲P. Nomell←▼D. Hasanagic

73'▲S. Narh←▼O. Strømsborg

Kvik Halden substitutes

8Moberg15Nomell21Narh6Kaili18Agu28Thorvaldsen45Johansen

Manager: K. Sørli

58'▲C. Landsnes←▼V. Hellestö

74'▲S. Jakobsen←▼S. Christensen

87'▲E. Randulff←▼V. Skjørestad

Vidar substitutes

22Landsnes9Jakobsen5Randulff12Meling15Thornes20Rogne