Kvik Halden 2–0 Vard: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vard

U. Seferi 76'

F. Næss 4'

6/18/2022

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kvik Halden54%

×Draw22%

Vard23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchVard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.16

Kvik Halden

1.90

Vard

1.16

Kvik Halden creates 64% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 52 away

1.77

creates per match

1.10

1.21

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Kvik Halden

1.77

Vard

1.10

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.21

Vard

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Vard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

77%

Kvik Halden or Vard

78%

Draw or Vard

46%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

31%

Vard wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

85%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

56%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

29%

Vard 1+ goals

69%

Vard 2+ goals

32%

Vard 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

70%

Vard (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Vard away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + Vard defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vard attack 1.10 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

54%

level

22%

Vard scores more

23%

Kvik Halden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

F. Næss

24'

A. Bjordal

46'

C. Niyukuri← R. Skjelde

58'

M. Nordtveit

62'

U. Seferi← E. Adukonis

65'

E. Ndayisenga← A. Bjordal

73'

73'

73'

76'

83'

86'

86'

K. Thorvaldsen← M. Moberg

88'

O. Thomassen← N. Kynningsrud

Kvik

Vard

1

Smedplass

15

Underhaug

30

Dobosz

18

▼

Bjordal

14

Nordtveit

28

▼

Skjelde

20

Miljeteig

6

▼

22

19

40

99

17

6

11

23

8

▼

Moberg

13

Zoulakis

19

▼

Kynningsr

10

⚽

▼

Næss

7

Makiadi

20

▼

Adukonis

Manager: J. Strand

62'▲U. Seferi←▼E. Adukonis

86'▲Ø. Næsheim←▼F. Næss

86'▲K. Thorvaldsen←▼M. Moberg

88'▲O. Thomassen←▼N. Kynningsrud

Kvik Halden substitutes

29Seferi9Næsheim28Thorvaldsen12Thomassen2Olsen5Čomor18Manirakiza22Bønøgård77Tmava

Manager: K. Fosen

46'▲C. Niyukuri←▼R. Skjelde

65'▲E. Ndayisenga←▼A. Bjordal

83'▲S. Vikse←▼E. Granat

Vard substitutes

33Niyukuri16Ndayisenga27Vikse17Shala24Thorsen