Kvik Halden 1–2 Lysekloster: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lysekloster

Ø. Næsheim 41' (pen)

O. Håbestad 82'

K. Singh 55'

9/15/2024

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kvik Halden48%

×Draw23%

Lysekloster29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchLysekloster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.40

Kvik Halden

1.84

Lysekloster

1.40

Kvik Halden creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 32 away

1.77

creates per match

1.59

1.21

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Kvik Halden

1.77

Lysekloster

1.59

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.21

Lysekloster

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Lysekloster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

71%

Kvik Halden or Lysekloster

77%

Draw or Lysekloster

52%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

26%

Lysekloster wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

84%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

55%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

28%

Lysekloster 1+ goals

75%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

41%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

62%

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + Lysekloster defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lysekloster attack 1.59 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

48%

level

23%

Lysekloster scores more

29%

Kvik Halden at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

J. Edvardsen

41'

Ø. NæsheimPenalty

54'

T. Hildal

54'

M. Jatta

55'

K. Singh

59'

O. Håbestad← T. Hildal

62'

M. Wawrzynkiewicz

66'

K. Pereira← A. Mjekiqi

66'

72'

82'

84'

87'

Luís Canina← Seco Sani

90'

A. Molund

90'

H. Rinde← K. Singh

Kvik

Lysekloster

1

33

4

8

31

▼

20

16

7

10

14

⚽

▼

Singh

21

▼

Hildal

99

Simsek

17

Sæter-Meh

20

▼

25

19

42

14

23

9

⚽

▼

Næsheim

58

▼

Sani

18

Østerud

Manager: K. Andreassen

66'▲K. Pereira←▼A. Mjekiqi

66'▲C. Skårn←▼Ø. Næsheim

87'▲Luís Canina←▼Seco Sani

Kvik Halden substitutes

16Pereira77Skårn28Canina3Grimstad70Gabrielsen11Johansen15Kohberg12Lund

Manager: R. Hetlevik

59'▲O. Håbestad←▼T. Hildal

72'▲J. Bolsø←▼J. Kvarven

90'▲H. Rinde←▼K. Singh

Lysekloster substitutes

19Håbestad32Bolsø2Rinde11Eftevaag12Svensson13Moula

Match Recap: Kvik Halden vs Lysekloster

Lysekloster beat Kvik Halden 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on September 15, 2024.

Goals: Ø. Næsheim (41' pen), K. Singh (55'), O. Håbestad (82').

The match was played at Halden Stadion in Halden.

Kvik Halden vs Lysekloster — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kvik Halden vs Lysekloster