Kvik Halden 2–3 jerv: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

jerv

A. Molund 77'

A. Østerud 47'

P. Wilson 51', 25' (pen)

H. Krogelien 32'

10/26/2024

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kvik Halden42%

×Draw23%

jerv34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchjerv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.50

Kvik Halden

1.69

jerv

1.50

Kvik Halden creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 33 away

1.77

creates per match

1.79

1.21

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Kvik Halden

1.77

jerv

1.79

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.21

jerv

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

jerv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

66%

Kvik Halden or jerv

77%

Draw or jerv

58%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

22%

jerv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

82%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

50%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

24%

jerv 1+ goals

78%

jerv 2+ goals

44%

jerv 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

55%

jerv (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

jerv away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + jerv defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

jerv attack 1.79 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

42%

level

23%

jerv scores more

34%

Kvik Halden at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

H. Hagen

25'

P. WilsonPenalty

29'

32'

37'

47'

51'

68'

A. Endresen← N. Seufert

70'

L. Gabrielsen← Ø. Næsheim

77'

A. Molund

81'

K. Jablinski← M. Wichmann

81'

L. Markmanrud← M. Trengereid

88'

I. Mafi← J. van der Meer

89'

J. Ostvold

Kvik

jerv

20

Øvretveit

15

Gueye

3

Larade

2

▼

Meer

16

⚽

Krogelien

6

▼

Wichmann

10

▼

Seufert

40

Osestad

80

▼

Trengerei

14

⚽2

17

12

17

25

2

19

⚽

77

14

11

47

9

▼

Næsheim

18

⚽

Østerud

Manager: K. Andreassen

70'▲L. Gabrielsen←▼Ø. Næsheim

Kvik Halden substitutes

70Gabrielsen3Grimstad8Halsne16Pereira20Mjekiqi1Bønøgård4Kohberg

Manager: E. Kjønø

68'▲A. Endresen←▼N. Seufert

81'▲K. Jablinski←▼M. Wichmann

81'▲L. Markmanrud←▼M. Trengereid

88'▲I. Mafi←▼J. van der Meer

jerv substitutes

25Endresen4Jablinski5Markmanrud19Mafi13Skeie22Race23Duesund32Bertelsen35Nilsen

Match Recap: Kvik Halden vs jerv

jerv beat Kvik Halden 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 26, 2024.

Goals: P. Wilson (25' pen, 51'), H. Krogelien (32'), A. Østerud (47'), A. Molund (77').

The match was played at Halden Stadion in Halden.

Kvik Halden vs jerv — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kvik Halden vs jerv