Kvik Halden 5–0 Fredrikstad II: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Fredrikstad II

9/21/2025

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 21Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kvik Halden80%

×Draw12%

Fredrikstad II8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.23

0.97

Kvik Halden

3.23

Fredrikstad II

0.97

Kvik Halden creates 233% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

3.92

creates per match

1.31

0.62

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Kvik Halden

3.92

Fredrikstad II

1.31

allows per match

Kvik Halden

0.62

Fredrikstad II

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Fredrikstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

92%

Kvik Halden or Fredrikstad II

88%

Draw or Fredrikstad II

20%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

61%

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

96%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

82%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

61%

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

62%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

25%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

91%

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 3.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 3.92 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 3.23

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + Kvik Halden defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

80%

level

12%

Fredrikstad II scores more

8%

Kvik Halden at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff