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Kvik Halden vs Fredrikstad — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Kvik Halden
Kvik Halden
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
J. Suka-Suka 17'
4/22/20192. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Round 2Halden Stadion (Halden)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kvik Halden28%
×Draw22%
Fredrikstad50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvik Halden
1.39
Fredrikstad
1.92

Fredrikstad creates 38% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kvik Halden
1.77
Fredrikstad
2.63

allows per match

Kvik Halden
1.21
Fredrikstad
1.00

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par
Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw
50%
Kvik Halden or Fredrikstad
78%
Draw or Fredrikstad
72%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+
12%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals
75%
Kvik Halden 2+ goals
40%
Kvik Halden 3+ goals
16%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
85%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
57%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)
36%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + Fredrikstad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fredrikstad attack 2.63 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kvik Halden scores more
28%
level
22%
Fredrikstad scores more
50%

Fredrikstad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
J. Suka-Suka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 1: Kvik Halden 1–0 Fredrikstad

Kvik Halden beat Fredrikstad 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on April 22, 2019.

Goals: J. Suka-Suka (17').

The match was played at Halden Stadion (Halden).