Kvik Halden 3–1 Flekkerøy: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Flekkerøy

U. Seferi 50'

F. Næss 40'

A. Makiadi 37'

E. Pedersen 47'

10/8/2022

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kvik Halden54%

×Draw22%

Flekkerøy23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchFlekkerøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.17

Kvik Halden

1.90

Flekkerøy

1.17

Kvik Halden creates 62% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

1.77

creates per match

1.12

1.21

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Kvik Halden

1.77

Flekkerøy

1.12

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.21

Flekkerøy

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Flekkerøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

77%

Kvik Halden or Flekkerøy

78%

Draw or Flekkerøy

46%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

31%

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

85%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

56%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

29%

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

69%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

33%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

70%

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Flekkerøy away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + Flekkerøy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.90

Flekkerøy attack 1.12 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

54%

level

22%

Flekkerøy scores more

23%

Kvik Halden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Engebretsen

37'

A. Makiadi

40'

F. Næss

46'

J. Eftevaag← A. Hauge

46'

P. Hille← D. Gamachis

47'

48'

48'

50'

64'

K. Thorvaldsen← Ø. Næsheim

70'

F. Westgaard

75'

A. Markovic

85'

D. Hasanagic← U. Seferi

90'

E. Čomor← F. Næss

90'

E. Adukonis← M. Engebretsen

Kvik

Flekkerøy

1

31

2

5

77

18

▼

Hauge

15

Ystanes

11

Richstad

8

▼

Gamachis

7

Fredrikse

23

⚽

99

17

16

3

6

11

23

▼

Engebrets

29

⚽

▼

Seferi

10

⚽

▼

Næss

9

▼

Næsheim

7

⚽

Makiadi

Manager: H. Júlíusson

64'▲K. Thorvaldsen←▼Ø. Næsheim

85'▲D. Hasanagic←▼U. Seferi

90'▲E. Čomor←▼F. Næss

90'▲E. Adukonis←▼M. Engebretsen

Kvik Halden substitutes

28Thorvaldsen25Hasanagic5Čomor20Adukonis8Moberg13Zoulakis18Manirakiza22Bønøgård77Tmava

Manager: J. Hardarson

46'▲J. Eftevaag←▼A. Hauge

46'▲P. Hille←▼D. Gamachis

Flekkerøy substitutes

16Eftevaag20Hille6Hella17Ibishi21Hilmarsson27Birkeland45Aamodt12Stokkeland14You

2. Division - Group 1: Kvik Halden 3–1 Flekkerøy

Kvik Halden beat Flekkerøy 3-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 8, 2022.

Goals: A. Makiadi (37'), F. Næss (40'), E. Pedersen (47'), U. Seferi (50').

The match was played at Halden Stadion in Halden.

Kvik Halden vs Flekkerøy — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Kvik Halden 3–1 Flekkerøy