Kvik Halden 2–2 Fløya: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Fløya

F. Næss 43', 30'

Y. Johansen 90+5'

S. Fitzgerald 54' (pen)

9/26/2021

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kvik Halden68%

×Draw17%

Fløya14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchFløya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.05

Kvik Halden

2.49

Fløya

1.05

Kvik Halden creates 137% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 20 away

1.77

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Kvik Halden

1.77

Fløya

0.90

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.21

Fløya

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Fløya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

86%

Kvik Halden or Fløya

83%

Draw or Fløya

32%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

46%

Fløya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

92%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

71%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

45%

Fløya 1+ goals

65%

Fløya 2+ goals

28%

Fløya 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

83%

Fløya (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Fløya away — creates 0.90, concedes 3.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + Fløya defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.49

Fløya attack 0.90 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

68%

level

17%

Fløya scores more

14%

Kvik Halden at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Eriksen

30'

F. Næss

43'

F. Næss

46'

M. Mikkelsen← M. Johannessen

53'

D. Mehmeti

53'

O. Stromsborg

54'

S. FitzgeraldPenalty

57'

M. Engebretsen← F. Westgård

75'

M. Rydningen← H. Fløgum

78'

M. Eriksen

78'

M. Eriksen

80'

J. Bouchleh← E. Adukonis

82'

T. Lind← S. Andersen

82'

M. Thorvaldsen← T. Kristoffersen

83'

M. Mikkelsen

87'

K. Thorvaldsen← Ø. Næsheim

90'

O. Simsek

90+5'

Y. Johansen

Kvik

Fløya

25

Andersen

23

⚽

Johansen

13

▼

Fløgum

4

▼

15

6

99

17

▼

Andersen

31

▼

Johanness

8

Abdi

9

⚽

1

88

17

16

▼

2

33

24

25

10

⚽2

Næss

9

▼

Næsheim

20

▼

Adukonis

Manager: T. Thodesen

57'▲M. Engebretsen←▼F. Westgård

80'▲J. Bouchleh←▼E. Adukonis

87'▲K. Thorvaldsen←▼Ø. Næsheim

Kvik Halden substitutes

23Engebretsen13Bouchleh28Thorvaldsen5Čomor7Kaasa12Thomassen18Manirakiza32Krans77Bønøgård

Manager: G. Olsen

46'▲M. Mikkelsen←▼M. Johannessen

75'▲M. Rydningen←▼H. Fløgum

82'▲T. Lind←▼S. Andersen

82'▲M. Thorvaldsen←▼T. Kristoffersen

Fløya substitutes

19Mikkelsen24Rydningen7Lind14Thorvaldsen