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Kvik Halden vs Bærum — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kvik Halden
Kvik Halden
FT
2 – 1
Bærum
Bærum
7/4/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kvik Halden58%
×Draw21%
Bærum21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvik Halden
2.11
Bærum
1.18

Kvik Halden creates 79% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kvik Halden
2.55
Bærum
1.00

allows per match

Kvik Halden
1.36
Bærum
1.67

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par
Bærum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Bærum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw
79%
Kvik Halden or Bærum
79%
Draw or Bærum
42%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+
36%
Bærum wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals
88%
Kvik Halden 2+ goals
62%
Kvik Halden 3+ goals
35%
Bærum 1+ goals
69%
Bærum 2+ goals
33%
Bærum 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)
74%
Bærum (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Bærum away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 2.55 + Bærum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.11

Bærum attack 1.00 + Kvik Halden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kvik Halden scores more
58%
level
21%
Bærum scores more
21%

Kvik Halden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kvik Halden vs Bærum

Kvik Halden beat Bærum 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Halden Stadion in Halden.