Kvik Halden 1–2 Asker: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Asker

F. Westgård 77'

D. Sereba 64', 10' (pen)

6/30/2021

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kvik Halden35%

×Draw24%

Asker41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.65

Kvik Halden

1.50

Asker

1.65

Asker creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

2.08

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Kvik Halden

1.77

Asker

2.08

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.21

Asker

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

59%

Kvik Halden or Asker

76%

Draw or Asker

65%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

17%

Asker wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

78%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

44%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

19%

Asker 1+ goals

81%

Asker 2+ goals

49%

Asker 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

46%

Asker (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Asker away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + Asker defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Asker attack 2.08 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

35%

level

24%

Asker scores more

41%

Asker at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. SerebaPenalty

26'

O. Thomassen

38'

M. Engebretsen

44'

P. Nomell

46'

M. Aamodt Eriksen← P. Nomell

56'

L. Fuhre← F. Kastrati

61'

K. Krans← D. Hasanagic

64'

D. Sereba

75'

Å. Midtskogen← E. Čomor

75'

E. Adukonis← Ø. Næsheim

77'

F. Westgård

84'

C. Bencsik

86'

M. Mounji← O. Thomassen

90+5'

M. Mounji

Kvik

Asker

24

5

21

3

17

15

23

19

25

⚽2

Sereba

11

Skaug

14

▼

Kastrati

12

▼

Thomassen

1

Simsek

17

Sæter-Meh

16

⚽

Westgård

33

Makiadi

5

▼

Čomor

23

Engebrets

25

▼

Hasanagic

10

Næss

9

▼

Næsheim

11

▼

Nomell

Manager: T. Thodesen

46'▲M. Aamodt Eriksen←▼P. Nomell

61'▲K. Krans←▼D. Hasanagic

75'▲Å. Midtskogen←▼E. Čomor

75'▲E. Adukonis←▼Ø. Næsheim

86'▲M. Mounji←▼O. Thomassen

Kvik Halden substitutes

24Eriksen32Krans6Midtskogen20Adukonis15Mounji8Moberg45Johansen

Manager: V. Skogheim

56'▲L. Fuhre←▼F. Kastrati

Asker substitutes

8Fuhre1Lia6Madsen26Fredhall29Singstad38Groth9Aarstad16Spiten-Nysæter