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KVC Westerlo vs Helmond Sport — Friendlies Clubs 2026

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
7/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark de Braak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KVC Westerlo44%
×Draw29%
Helmond Sport27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.25
Helmond Sport
0.92

KVC Westerlo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
2.17
Helmond Sport
0.33

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.50
Helmond Sport
0.33

finishing

KVC Westerlo+0.00on par
Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
73%
KVC Westerlo or Helmond Sport
71%
Draw or Helmond Sport
56%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
20%
Helmond Sport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
71%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
36%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
13%
Helmond Sport 1+ goals
60%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
23%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
62%
Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 2.17 + Helmond Sport defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Helmond Sport attack 0.33 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
44%
level
29%
Helmond Sport scores more
27%

KVC Westerlo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: KVC Westerlo 0–0 Helmond Sport

KVC Westerlo and Helmond Sport drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark de Braak in Helmond.