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KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League 2026

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Charleroi
Charleroi
G. Yow 90+4'
M. Frigan 7'
Ž. Rogelj 90'
N. Štulić 20'
4/11/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 3Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

KVC Westerlo41%
×Draw25%
Charleroi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.54
Charleroi
1.38

KVC Westerlo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 45 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
1.79
Charleroi
1.28

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.48
Charleroi
1.30

finishing

KVC Westerlo-0.21scores less
Charleroi-0.15scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
66%
KVC Westerlo or Charleroi
75%
Draw or Charleroi
59%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
20%
Charleroi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
79%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
45%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
20%
Charleroi 1+ goals
75%
Charleroi 2+ goals
40%
Charleroi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
55%
Charleroi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.79 + Charleroi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Charleroi attack 1.28 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
41%
level
25%
Charleroi scores more
34%

KVC Westerlo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
G. YowKVC WesterloKVC Westerlo · M
8.2

Match Events

7'
M. Frigan↳ T. Van den Keybus
20'
N. Štulić↳ M. Sow
62'
Thomas Van den Keybus
68'
J. Alcócer← A. Sayyadmanesh
75'
Etienne CamaraGoal cancelled
76'
R. Asante← I. Mbenza
77'
I. Sakamoto← T. Van den Keybus
84'
Ž. Rogelj← A. Bernier
90+3'
I. Slimani← B. Reynolds
90'
Ž. Rogelj↳ N. Štulić
90+4'
G. Yow↳ A. Jungdal

Possession

46%KVC

Shots

23KVC

Pass accuracy

49%KVC

Statistics

KVCCharleroi
Overview
46%Possession54%
23Total Shots7
2.30Expected Goals (xG)1.10
6Corners2
7Fouls10
Shots
23Total Shots7
6On Target4
9Off Target1
8Blocked2
13Inside Box4
10Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
391Total Passes454
312Accurate Passes372
80%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.15Goals Prevented0.15
Discipline
7Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi

KVC Westerlo and Charleroi drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on April 11, 2025.

Goals: M. Frigan (7'), N. Štulić (20'), Ž. Rogelj (90'), G. Yow (90+4').

Charleroi controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 23.

The match was played at Het Kuipje in Westerlo.