Charleroi 4–3 KVC Westerlo: Result & Stats

Charleroi

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

KVC Westerlo

C. Keita 84'

D. Heymans 71' (pen)

N. Štulić 57', 10'

M. Frigan 55'

I. Sakamoto 39', 29'

5/9/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 8Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charleroi45%

×Draw24%

KVC Westerlo31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharleroiExpected goals in this matchKVC Westerlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.36

Charleroi

1.67

KVC Westerlo

1.36

Charleroi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

1.42

1.31

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Charleroi

1.50

KVC Westerlo

1.42

allows per match

Charleroi

1.31

KVC Westerlo

1.83

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Charleroi-0.10scores less

KVC Westerlo-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

KVC Westerlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw

69%

Charleroi or KVC Westerlo

76%

Draw or KVC Westerlo

55%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+

23%

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals

81%

Charleroi 2+ goals

50%

Charleroi 3+ goals

23%

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals

74%

KVC Westerlo 2+ goals

39%

KVC Westerlo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)

59%

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 20 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.83 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.50 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

KVC Westerlo attack 1.42 + Charleroi defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Charleroi scores more

45%

level

24%

KVC Westerlo scores more

31%

Charleroi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

N. Štulić

Charleroi · F

8.7

Match Events

10'

N. Štulić↳ A. Bernier

29'

I. Sakamoto

39'

I. Sakamoto

55'

M. Frigan↳ A. Devine

56'

Thomas Van den Keybus

57'

N. Štulić↳ S. Andreou

63'

Doğucan Haspolat

63'

A. Sayyadmanesh← T. Van den Keybus

66'

Mardochee Nzita

69'

Matija Frigan

71'

D. HeymansPenalty

74'

Allahyar Sayyadmanesh

78'

J. Alcócer← B. Reynolds

78'

I. Slimani← I. Sakamoto

80'

Tuur Rommens

80'

Ž. Rogelj← A. Bernier

84'

88'

90+7'

90+7'

90+2'

V. Dragsnes← M. Nzita

90+2'

É. Camara← A. Zorgane

90'

R. Denuit← J. Pétris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharleroiKVC

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots13

3.17Expected Goals (xG)1.99

4Corners7

7Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots13

8On Target6

6Off Target3

3Blocked4

11Inside Box11

6Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

435Total Passes347

355Accurate Passes282

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.62Goals Prevented-0.62

Discipline

7Fouls15

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo

Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 4-3 in Jupiler Pro League on May 9, 2025.

Goals: N. Štulić (10', 57'), I. Sakamoto (29', 39'), M. Frigan (55'), D. Heymans (71' pen), C. Keita (84').

Charleroi controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Charleroi.

Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo