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KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Charleroi
Charleroi
3/1/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 28Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

KVC Westerlo43%
×Draw25%
Charleroi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.58
Charleroi
1.34

KVC Westerlo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
1.71
Charleroi
1.25

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.43
Charleroi
1.45

finishing

KVC Westerlo-0.29scores less
Charleroi+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
68%
KVC Westerlo or Charleroi
75%
Draw or Charleroi
57%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
22%
Charleroi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
79%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
47%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
21%
Charleroi 1+ goals
74%
Charleroi 2+ goals
39%
Charleroi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
57%
Charleroi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.71 + Charleroi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

Charleroi attack 1.25 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
43%
level
25%
Charleroi scores more
32%

KVC Westerlo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: KVC Westerlo 0–1 Charleroi

Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Het Kuipje in Westerlo.