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KVC Westerlo vs Beerschot VA — Friendlies Clubs 2026

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
J. Bernat 32' (pen)
L. Foster 5'
R. Vaca 85', 30'
T. Baeten 17'
7/16/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Trainingscomplex KVC Westerlo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KVC Westerlo28%
×Draw18%
Beerschot VA54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.96
Beerschot VA
2.75

Beerschot VA creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
2.17
Beerschot VA
4.00

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.50
Beerschot VA
1.75

finishing

KVC Westerlo+0.00on par
Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
46%
KVC Westerlo or Beerschot VA
82%
Draw or Beerschot VA
72%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
14%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
86%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
58%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
31%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
93%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
75%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
34%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 2.17 + Beerschot VA defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.96

Beerschot VA attack 4.00 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
28%
level
18%
Beerschot VA scores more
54%

Beerschot VA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
L. Foster
17'
T. Baeten
30'
R. Vaca
31'
I. Alhassan
32'
J. BernatPenalty
60'
I. Alhassan
60'
I. Alhassan
60'
F. Westerlo
85'
R. Vaca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: KVC Westerlo 2–3 Beerschot VA

Beerschot VA beat KVC Westerlo 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 16, 2022.

Goals: L. Foster (5'), T. Baeten (17'), R. Vaca (30', 85'), J. Bernat (32' pen).

The match was played at Trainingscomplex KVC Westerlo in Geel.